The Chargers’ penchant for close games didn’t fade with Anthony Lynn’s departure.
The Chargers’ penchant for close games didn’t fade with Anthony Lynn’s departure.
Few NFL teams had a harder difficulty avoiding tight games and the sorrow that frequently accompanied them during Anthony Lynn’s four seasons as head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. While it was not the Chargers’ sole problem over those years, it did play a role in Lynn’s dismissal when general manager Tom Telesco replaced him with Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Brandon Staley in the summer of 2021.
The Chargers’ brass felt that changing coaches would enhance the team’s ability to win decisively and avoid games that were decided on a coin flip. While that strategy may still work, early indications indicate that some of the problems that plagued Los Angeles under Lynn are also there under Staley.
Good teams don’t just win; they thrash their opponents.
The Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert looks over to the bench during a 20-17 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Sept. 19, 2021. | Harry How/Getty Images
Coaches often teach that a team’s success in tight games shows character, although the evidence contradicts this.
Any team’s record in one-possession games will eventually trend toward the center if given enough time. Over the last four seasons, even the New England Patriots had a nearly equal record in those games (15-12). Long-term success is more likely to be predicted by a franchise’s ability to win decisively and avoid tight games. No postseason team played in fewer one-possession games than the Patriots during that time span (27).
On the other hand, the Chargers are on the other extreme of the spectrum.
According to Stathead, the club has played in 40 one-possession games since Lynn came in 2017. This is the fourth-most in the NFL during that time period. Despite having a same roster throughout, Los Angeles had a 6-1 record in tight games in 2018 and a losing record in such games in Lynn’s previous three seasons. In those years, Lynn often harped on his team’s failure to finish off opponents, and game management undoubtedly played a part.
The best teams in the NFL, on the other hand, routinely blow out their opponents rather than escaping with wins.
So far, the Chargers have followed a similar pattern under Staley.
To far, Lynn’s replacement has coached just two regular-season games, far from a representative sample size. Nonetheless, the scripts for those games are eerily similar to Lynn’s. The Chargers have never led by more than a touchdown in the 120 minutes of play, but they have trailed by double digits on many occasions.
Los Angeles fell down 14-3 before the conclusion of the first quarter in a Week 2 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. Star quarterback Justin Herbert rallied his team from the brink of defeat in the third quarter, tying the game. But, although his individual effort is deserving of praise, no team can expect good outcomes by continually living on the edge, as shown by the Cowboys’ game-winning field goal in the closing seconds.
As the season progresses, we can only hope for better things.
Even if the Chargers’ fortunes haven’t improved in the near term as a consequence of the Staley era, few head-coaching changes in the NFL provide instant pleasure.
Staley’s defensive scheme, which made him a coveted commodity during the coaching carousel 13 months after serving as a positions assistant with the Denver Broncos, is starting to bear fruit. More game-changing plays will come as Joey Bosa, Derwin James Jr., and the other defensive field-tilters on the roster find their bearings in the new system.
Similarly, the offensive has space to improve. Despite Herbert’s outstanding performance and a slew of strong skill-position players, the Chargers have converted only 30% of their red-zone visits into touchdowns this season, the NFL’s second-worst percentage. Los Angeles may decrease the number of one-possession games just by getting to league average.
While the Chargers have plenty of time to figure out a winning recipe, doing it soon would help them get through a tough schedule ahead of them. In Week 3, they face the Kansas City Chiefs, followed by a two-game homestand against the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Chargers are entrusting Justin Herbert’s Super Bowl dreams to a mad genius who has never played college football.
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